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SECTION IV
CONSENSUS ACHIEVED |
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4.1 |
SECTION SUMMARY: |
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4.1.1 |
During the process of deliberations and without waiting for compilation of the Interim Report, the Committee succeeded in achieving consensus on a number of issues some of which had remained unresolved for over 12 years. First consensus reached between the provinces was in PCWR meeting of December 16, 2003 on Water Studies. The following three studies were agreed: |
| i. | Study on Water Escapages below Kotri Barrage to Check Sea Water Intrusion. |
| ii. | Study on Water Escapages downstream Kotri Barrage to address Environmental Concerns. |
| iii. | Study on Environmental Concerns of all the four provinces (excluding areas covered under study i & ii). |
| 4.1.2 | Later, in PCWR meeting with Chief Ministers on July 20, 2004, consensus was achieved on 1991 Accord, Provincial Priority Projects and on Large Dams as follows: |
| a. | 1991 Accord is sacrosanct and will be implemented in ‘toto’ without any reference to 1994 Ministerial Decisions. |
| b. | Provincial priority projects and small reservoirs are supported, costing Rs 8.1 billion in the first year. However, priority A&B will be submitted by provinces for resubmission and consideration for 2004-05. |
| c. | Large dams need to be built in the country but with consensus. |
| 4.1.3 | Details on areas on which consensus was achieved are given hereinafter. |
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STUDIES – BELOW KOTRI & ENVIRONMENT: |
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4.2.1 |
Wetlands provide economic and environmental benefits of agriculture, horticulture, and animal husbandry. Population of fish, water birds and other flora and fauna breed in wetlands. The need for certain minimum escapage to sea below Kotri, the last Barrage on River Indus, was recognized in Para-7 of the 1991 Water Accord which reads as follows:
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4.2.2 |
As a follow up of Para-7 of the 1991 Water Accord, the Ministry of Water & Power and Indus River System Authority (IRSA) made several attempts from 1991 to 2003 to undertake studies to establish minimum escapages needs downstream Kotri Barrage in line with above Para. Efforts were made through Council of Common Interests (CCI), UNDP, and the World Bank. However the efforts did not materialize on account of difference of opinion between provinces, particularly Sindh and Punjab, on the Terms of Reference (TORs) of the proposed study. |
| 4.2.3 | In Parliamentary Committee on Water Resources (PCWR) meeting of December 16, 2003, a unanimous decision was arrived at with the concurrence of all four provinces. The decisions are as follows, signed copy is attached as Annexure-VII: |
i. |
The existing expressions of interest received for two studies and lying sealed with the Ministry of Water & Power should be proceeded with immediately and the tenders awarded within 30 days from 16th December 2003. |
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ii. |
A third study pertaining to environmental concerns of all the four provinces, excluding the areas covered in studies as in item 1 above, will be carried out. The TORs of which will be submitted by all provinces to the Ministry of Water & Power within 30 days and tenders called within 60 days from 16th December 2003. |
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iii. |
The studies mentioned in items 1 & 2 above shall be financed from the budgetary allocation of Ministry of Water & Power on a fast track basis for which the Ministry of Finance will provide the additional funding. |
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4.2.4 |
Status of the Studies: |
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Study-1: |
Study on Water Escapages below Kotri Barrage to Check Sea Water Intrusion |
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4.2.5 |
Consortium of consultants comprising Joint Venture of Montgomery Watson Harza (MWH) USA, Associated Consulting Engineers (ACE) and NESPAK were selected for the study after open international bidding. A combined PC-II for study 1&2 was approved at a cost of Rs 106.34 million by CDWP on May 18, 2004. The Draft Contract Agreements were vetted by the Law Division, and on July 14, 2004, Finance Division issued “No Objection” on the two draft contracts. |
| Study-II: | Study on Water Escapages Downstream Kotri Barrage to Address Environmental Concerns |
| 4.2.6 | Consortium of consultants comprising Joint Venture of Lahmeyer International GmbH Germany, National Development Consultants (NDC), BAK Consulting Engineers, Peshawar, Infra-D Consultants, Islamabad, and Pakistan Architects & Consulting Engineers, Hyderabad were selected for the study after open international bidding. A combined PC-II for study 1&2 was approved at a cost of Rs 106.34 million by CDWP on May 18, 2004. The Draft Contract Agreements were vetted by the Law Division, and on July 14, 2004, Finance Division issued “No Objection” on the two draft contracts. |
| 4.2.7 | However, in the meeting with Chief Ministers on July 20, 2004, Sindh conveyed its reservations on the selection of consultants for both studies 1 & 2. They observed that the selection process by the Ministry of Water & Power was confined to limited number of companies and more international level open bidding should have been invited. Sindh also objected to selection of NDC (National Development Consultants) in the consortium of companies for study 2 as this company was earlier engaged by Punjab Government for study on determining the minimum escapages below Kotri for checking sea intrusion. Dissenting note on this was given by Sindh during the selection process. It was therefore decided that representatives of Sindh Government will meet officials of the Ministry of Water & Power to resolve the matter. Only if the matter is not resolved, then study 1 & 2 will be considered for re-tendering by the Ministry of Water & Power. |
| Study-III: | Study on Environmental Concerns of all the Four Provinces (Excluding Areas Covered in Study-I & II) |
| 4.2.8 | Technical proposals for the study have been evaluated and award of tender is in process. PC-II costing Rs 98 million has been approved by CDWP on June 24, 2004. |
| * The current status of the three studies as provided by Federal Flood Commission on August 27, 2004 is given at Annexure-XI. | |
4.3 |
WATER ACCORD OF 1991: |
| 4.3.1 | The issue of Water Apportionment emerged as far back as in 1919 when the report of the Cotton Committee recommending the construction of Sukkur Barrage was finalized. Sindh wanted assured supply of water for the Sukkur Barrage Canals, particularly after the construction of Sutlej Valley, Thal and Haveli Canal Projects which were then under active consideration of the Government of Punjab. At the same time, Punjab protested against the Sukkur Canals Project apprehending that there would be inadequate supplies for both Sukkur and other projects. Since that time the issue of apportionment of Indus Waters remained under active consideration but unresolved, even though a number of new irrigation schemes were undertaken in both the provinces of Sindh and Punjab under interim arrangements. |
| 4.3.2 | In an effort to achieve a final resolution of the issue, the following Committees and Commissions were formed and reports issued: |
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| 4.3.3 | Despite enormous work performed by these bodies, a consensus could not be reached. |
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4.3.4 |
The “Accord on the Apportionment of Waters of the Indus Rivers System” commonly known as 1991 Water Accord was signed on March 16, 1991 (Appendix-IV). Some of the main features of the Accord are summarized below: |
| I. | Total Water in use at time of Accord (inclusive of 3 MAF for NWFP Civil Canals): 105.23 MAF |
| II. | Additional Water Allocated to the Provinces: 12.12 MAF |
| III. | Total Water Allocated: 117.35 MAF Provincial Share of 117.35 MAF:  |
| IV. | Sharing Ratio of Flood Supplies and Future Storages: Punjab (37 %) Sindh (37 %) NWFP (14 %) Balochistan (12 %) |
| V. | The need for storages was recognized, wherever feasible on the Indus & other rivers. |
| VI. | The need for minimum escapage to sea, below Kotri, to check sea intrusion was recognized. Sindh held the view that the optimum level was 10 MAF, which was discussed at length, while other studies indicated lower/ higher figures. It was, therefore, decided that further studies would be undertaken to establish the minimal escapage needs downstream Kotri. |
| 4.3.5 | Ministerial Decisions of 1994: An Inter-Provincial Ministerial meeting was held on 2nd May, 1994 to review matters relating to the water situation prevailing in the country. The following decisions were taken: |
| i. | The intending point for Sindh’s share of irrigation supplies during the month of May 1994 shall be Taunsa instead of Chashma. |
| ii. | During the month of May 1994, Mangla Reservoir should be operated as far as possible at levels in between 1994 Minimum Rule Curve and 1985 minimum ever levels. |
| iii. | The shortages between Sindh and Punjab will be shared according to historic uses. |
| iv. | Sindh Irrigation Department will release, as far as possible, full requirement of Balochistan. |
| 4.3.6 | Major Issues in Implementation of the Accord: One of the major differences brought forward by Sindh is the sharing of water shortages. Sharing is required to be done as per 10-daily allocations forming part and parcel of the Accord, yet in some years sharing of shortages amongst provinces was done according to 1994 Ministerial Decision, even though it had been annulled by the Chief Executive in October 2000. |
| 4.3.7 | A table on water sharing between Punjab and Sindh under 1991 Water Accord and 1994 Ministerial Decision is given as under: .gif) |
| 4.3.8 | Another major issue raised by Sindh is on the filling of Mangla reservoir in April and May when there are shortages in Sindh and heavy demand of supplies for early Kharif sowing. Sindh also objects to diversion of water in C-J and T-P links during shortages as well as on the construction of Greater Thal Canal contending that it is not included in the 10-daily statement of the Accord. |
| 4.3.9 | CMs Decisions of July 20, 2004: During the presentation of gaps in consensus on major areas with particular reference to provincial positions on 1991 Water Accord, the Minister for Water & Power suggested that implementation of the Accord be referred to CCI, if needed. The Chief Minister Punjab observed that debating on these issues would tantamount to opening the Accord, which was not desirable as Accord is sacrosanct to all. As such, he opined “let us implement 1991 Accord since 1994 Ministerial Decision is illegal”. The views were acknowledged by all the other Chief Ministers and it was agreed that “1991 Accord is sacrosanct and will be implemented in ‘toto’ without any reference to 1994 Ministerial Decisions”. |
4.4 |
PROVINCIAL PRIORITY PROJECTS INCLUDING SMALL RESERVOIRS: |
| 4.4.1 | After first round of visit to provincial headquarters and detailed consultations, the Committee sent a summary to the Prime Minister on 3rd April, 2004 for allocation of special funds in PSDP 2004-05 for accelerated implementation of provincial projects including small reservoirs, list of which is attached as Annexure-VIII. It is estimated that with the implementation of these projects, 2.79 Million acres will be irrigated through utilization of 12 MAF. The total estimated cost of the projects is Rs 206.8 billion and the budgetary requirement for the year 2004-05 is Rs 8.10 billion as per details given below:.gif) |
| 4.4.2 | However, requisite funds have not been reflected in the budget 2004-05. As informed by the Ministry of Water & Power, Planning Commission had allocated Rs 14 billion for the ongoing water sector projects in PSDP 2004-05 and it was only on the intervention of the President that the allocation has been raised to Rs 20.7 billion. In the CMs meeting held on July 20, 2004, it was decided that provinces will review the list of priority provincial projects and submit prioritized “A & B” projects and the Committee requests Federal Government for re-consideration of additional funds for priority ‘A’ projects in budget 2004-05. Accordingly, NWFP Government has submitted priority “A” projects amounting to Rs 601 million, Punjab Rs 900 million, Sindh Rs 210 million, while Government of Balochistan has not provided any update on its previous figure of Rs 3.82 billion. The total requirement amounts to Rs 5.53 billion. |
4.5 |
BUILDING LARGE STORAGES: |
| 4.5.1 | The population of Pakistan is over 146 million, which is expected to grow to about 221 million by the year 2025. The most pressing need over the next quarter century will be the management of the rapidly increasing population and provision for food, power and water requirements. |
| 4.5.2 | The total geographical area is 796,100 km2 out of which about 50% includes mountainous terrains, narrow valleys and foothills and, as such, is of limited productivity. The total cultivated area is about 40 million acres and there is potential for irrigating additional 38.86 million acres, provided water is available. Detailed breakdown is as follows: |
IRRIGATABLE LAND PROFILE .gif) * 91 % is Non Indus Command Area as given by Balochistan Government ** WAPDA/ Agriculture Statistics of Pakistan |
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| 4.5.3 | With increasing population, Pakistan is fast heading towards a situation of water scarcity. According to Falkenmark’s indicator, the minimum water requirement to avoid being a water short country is 1000 m3 and Pakistan is expected to reach this stage in year 2010 as indicated in the following table:.gif) |
| 4.5.4 | With rapidly increasing population, increased cropping intensities (original 60-70%, now increased to 120-150% - Punjab) and sedimentation of existing reservoirs, the country is presently facing water shortages which are estimated to be of the order of 12 MAF. The three major reservoirs, Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma have todate lost a combined storage capacity of 3.58 MAF (23%) and it is projected that by year 2010 the loss in storage capacity will increase to 5.10 MAF (32%) as shown in the following table: |
| 4.5.5 | Existing Water Uses & Requirements for 2025: The mean annual canal diversions for Indus Basin Irrigation System, for the last 28 years (post Tarbela 1976) are 104 MAF. After accounting for the conveyance losses, the total water delivered at the farmgate is 58 MAF (includes uses above rim stations). Groundwater pumpage contributes 37 MAF and 4.7 MAF are generated through rainfall harvesting. Thus the total water available for agriculture stands at 100 MAF. The system faces a shortage of about 12 MAF in early Kharif when inflows are low and there is insufficient water in the reservoirs for release. After taking into account drinking water, sanitation & industrial uses, the total present water sector uses are 108 MAF. |
| 4.5.6 | It is estimated that by year 2025 the water requirement for agriculture alone will increase to 120 MAF and the total water sector uses will be 136 MAF. The total additional water requirements in year 2025 will be 28 MAF and the corresponding figure at canal head would be 37 MAF. Details are shown in the following table: * Present shortfall of about 12 MAF ** Corresponding figure at Canal Head is 37 MAF (Source: National Water Policy) |
| 4.5.7 | It is estimated that by year 2025, an additional 28 MAF, equivalent to 37 MAF at Canal Head would be required to meet the country’s requirements, which can be met by critical maintenance of the system including lining of canals/ channels and creating necessary water storages including the construction of large reservoirs and small provincial projects. |
| 4.5.8 | Several countries are presently constructing large dams (above 200 ft height) as indicated in the following table, despite world wide opposition to large dams coming from environment activists and NGOs: Country No. of Dams China: 59 Japan: 35 Iran: 28 Turkey: 22 India: 6 |
| 4.5.9 | Ongoing Storage Projects: The present Government has embarked upon construction of several storage projects, details of which are given in the ensuing table. With the construction of these reservoirs, an additional 4.01 MAF will be available to irrigate 222,886 acres and power generation of 228 MW..gif) * Inside Indus Basin, remaining dams outside Indus Basin. |
| 4.5.10 | The potential sites for large reservoirs are given in the following table:.gif) Source: WAPDA/ * Engr. Fatehullah Khan ** Update requires one year |
| 4.5.11 | In presentations given to PCWR at provincial headquarters, the provinces indicated their position on large dams, according to which, Balochistan supported large reservoirs but with consensus; NWFP recognized the need for large reservoirs, supported Basha, opposed Kalabagh; Punjab supported large reservoirs with order of priority; Kalabagh (with outlets), Akhori, and Basha; and Sindh’s position was that if water is available, supports Skardu/ Katzarah, but opposes Kalabagh. |
| 4.5.12 | As to the status of potential large reservoirs, Kalabagh and Basha dams have been declared technically feasible by WAPDA Consultants. Work on Kalabagh dam can be started in 2005 and completed by 2011. Basha Dam can be started in 2007 and can be completed by 2014. Feasibility report of Akhori Dam is expected by August 2005, while pre-feasibility study of Katzarah Dam is expected to be completed by September 2005. |
| 4.5.13 | In the PCWR meeting held on July 20, 2004, all four CMs agreed on the need for building large reservoirs but with consensus. They also indicated their position and priority on the prospective storages which is given as under: Sindh: Agrees to constructing large dams. First Basha Dam followed by Skardu/ Katzarah Dam. After these two DAMS, we can talk about Kalabagh Dam. Punjab: All large dams supported. Dams whose feasibility study has been completed, i.e. Kalabagh and Basha should be started together. Balochistan: Agrees to building large dams but with consensus. NWFP: Recognizes need for constructing large dams. Basha assigned first priority. Do not support Kalabagh, unless reservations are removed. |
| 4.5.14 | In summary; Basha Dam was not opposed by any provincial Chief Minister |
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